Following the palace killings, the rebels declared a casefire during which time they prepared to launch attacks on remote police posts. Three months later they broke off talks and made two major assaults on remote hill stations. Because reporting was made difficult by the terrain and difficulties in communications with remote areas no one was initially certain that the security forces would be able to restore order in the face of the rebel campaign. The new King and a new Prime Minister responded by declaring a state of emergency and sending the army in. There followed a series of operations in the western regions as the security forces went onto the offensive, pushing the rebels back to their strongholds in the hills of the far west. Newspapers carried a series of distressing headlines although as always, they neglected to mention that for 99% of people at the time, life carried on as normal. By the end of the year, it was apparent that the issue was not whether the security forces could regain control of the rebel areas but rather it was a matter of how long it would take to defeat them militarily and whether the emergency was still required.

The rebels found it necessary to attempt to sue for peace and remind the authorities they were not a spent force by attacking a small government outpost in a remote area. With preparations under way for elections in November 2002, the state of emergency was lifted and the rebels took the opportunity to both propose more talks and launch an assault on a hill station in the remote west - as if to remind the authorities they were not altogether a spent force. They have declared their intention to disrupt the November elections and have called a general strike (see below) in protest at the Prime Minister's decision to hold fresh elections. Although they may succeed in disrupting some of the polling in the far west, for the vast majority the elections should take place uneventfully, with an increased number of security personnel visible on the streets.

Despite some setbacks for the Royal Nepal Army since it was sent in, there is no doubt that the balance of forces between the rebels and the security forces has decisively tilted against the rebels. After 5 years of being largely ignored as a distant problem, the new authorities have tackled the problems head on and pushed the rebels back into the areas they originally came from in the far western hills. Military assistance from India, the US, the UK and Belgium together with tighter border controls along the Nepal-India border have made it far harder for the rebels who have seen their number halve in the space of a few months. Development assistance is also increasing to help address the poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition and welfare needs of people living in the least developed rural areas - the causes which fuelled the Maoist alliance between peasants in rural Nepal and intellectuals sheltering abroad. In desperation, the rebels began attacking infrastructure targets such as power lines and phone exchanges in remote regions. In doing so, they lost popular support since the effects were to make the lives of the least advantaged - those they professed to represent - more difficult. In just a year, the rebels had lost control of many of the areas they previously influenced, they had lost even the conditional public support for their cause and they had suffered major military defeats. Instead of looting weapons from the security services, the authorities were recovering many of the arms, food and money looted earlier. Combined with rates of desertion from the rebels by people who had volunteered or been obliged to join, the rebel movement is roughly half its former size and increasingly being forced onto the defensive.

Many Western travellers are familiar with taking sensible precautions when travelling at home. For example, it may be wise to avoid walking alone through some districts in the large cities at night because of the risk of crime. Equally, few suggest foreigners should not visit Rome because life in Sicily can sometimes be violent or London because of recent civil conflict in Northern Ireland. So although Nepali society has its problems like most others, they can be easily avoided by simply exercising the same kind of caution you'd apply at home or anywhere else. See below for more specific guidance.

Diplomatic Travel Advice